In their report STEM, the Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) at Georgetown University estimated that 2.4 million traditional STEM* jobs need to be filled between 2008 and 2018.  Since that 2010 report, CEW’s forecast has been extended to 2020, with the number of STEM jobs to be filled through then estimated at 2.64 million. Of the estimate through 2020, 1.09 million are new jobs and 1.55 million are jobs created because retiring Baby Boomers will need to be replaced.  This estimate does not include the STEM-Competitor jobs in healthcare, professional, and managerial careers and non-STEM related jobs that need to be filled between 2010 and 2020.

*Traditional STEM careers:  computer occupations (computer technicians, computer programmers, and computer scientists), mathematical science occupations, engineers and engineering technicians, life and physical science occupations, and architects, surveyors, and technicians.

Yes, and it is a complex issue depending on factors such as STEM field, industry, location, and career timing.  Where it becomes a clear yes is between two and 10 years out from graduation when we lose 20% of the workers in traditional STEM careers to professional and management jobs outside that sector where the demand for STEM knowledge, skills, and abilities is great.

Using 2010 US Census population and education level data to look only at potential undergraduate degrees, it appears that we can generate the STEM degrees we need by 2018 to take entry-level positions in traditional STEM careers.  We know that 1.55 million of the STEM job vacancies due to retiring senior level workers are off the table for new graduates. That leaves the remaining 1.09 million job vacancies, and, certainly many of those jobs will not be at entry-level. Even if we have some surplus of qualified entry-level STEM candidates, shortages are still likely due to:

• Being highly employable outside traditional STEM careers because of the demand for their knowledge, skills, and abilities.
• Diversion to more attractive salaries and working conditions in jobs outside traditional STEM, which will continue to occur unless organizations increase engagement and retention of their workers.
• Increasing demand for STEM talent will occur in step with technological advances that stimulate creation of new technology-based jobs.

*Traditional STEM careers: computer occupations (computer technicians, computer programmers, and computer scientists), mathematical science occupations, engineers and engineering technicians, life and physical science occupations, and architects, surveyors, and technicians.

The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce estimates this distribution of education level by percentage for the number of jobs at that level that need to be filled between 2008 and 2018:

• 24% or 569,700 will require a graduate degree (Master’s or PhD)
• 41% or 979,000 will require an undergraduate degree
• 13% or 306,900 will require an associate’s degree
• 12% or 295,000 will require some college level education
• 10% or 226,600 will require a high school diploma

As of the 2010 US Census,* there are 41,289,000 people 18 years old and over who hold an undergraduate degree. That is 20% of the population residing in the US as it was counted then.  The same census shows that 26.7% of our 25-29 year old population hold an undergraduate degree.  As of 2010 the educational distribution by percent of the US resident population 18+ was:

• 20% hold a bachelor’s degree or higher
• 7.4% hold a master’s degree
• 1.3% hold a PhD
• 1.5% hold a professional degree
• 9% hold an associate’s degree
• 21% have some college education
• 34% graduated from high school
• 15% did not graduate from high school.

*The US Census counts all residents of the US, including foreign citizens who work or attend an educational institution in the US.

Only 19% of all students who graduate with an undergraduate degree have a STEM degree, with 10% working in a traditional STEM field after graduating.  After 10 years work experience, just 8% of them remain employed in a traditional STEM career.

For all women holding an undergraduate degree, 12% hold a STEM degree, which is 7% less than that for all students. The attrition for women is astonishing. Within two years of graduation, only 5% are still working in a traditional STEM career, and, at 10 years out from graduation, only 3% remain.

• 34% of  African-American students plan to graduate with a STEM degree
•  Only 6% of STEM workers are African-Amercan
• The attrition of African-American students in non-HCBU educational environments is exceptionally high
• Beginning STEM career salaries for African-American workers are about $10,000 per year less than Latinx, White, and Asian STEM workers
• Salaries for African-Americans workers diverge from Latinx, White, and Asian counterparts early in their careers, with those two groups making as much as $10,000, $15,000 and $35,000 more per year as their careers mature